Vietnam is going to produce same as last year. More involved in value addition for retail. Plus removal of massive amounts of Ecuadorian raw material going through Vietnam to enter China. Going direct to China was always known to be fraught with hazards. Vietnam had thriving shrimp value added factories for US and Japan. Not just China.
Of course there are different traceability standards required than the current secondary processing labeling requirements for international trade under WTO rules – and with a sudden influx of shrimp directly from Ecuador, instead of via Vietnam, Chinese customs were struggling to cope and, at same time, implement new technologies. Including certain customs related ones that meant a move away from using US IT systems – from physical, for software and, coming soon, import trade certifications back upstream for collating data on commodities.
Ecuador will produce more than last year but are less involved in downstream value addition. Yes well, maybe some have separated their processing from farming, which is one strategy. Others no.
The CNA model plan was supposedly to double production with intensification and electrification of farms in Ecuador.
Lots of farmers already started but have had to rein in production with uncertainties in access to markets.
Shortfall of 70,000MT – is that more like the calculation of cumulative volume drop in Ecuador shrimp exports to China over May and June compared to year before? Or is it an actual know number that Ecuador exported and could not find a home for?
30% drop in price compared to last year for Ecuador. Industry has a built in resilience. Not unlike during a disease outbreak where one has to write off the stock. Less money is made that year. Production cycle adjusted.
The difference for Ecuador system to Vietnamese intensive system is that Ecuadorian system can rapidly adjust to running lower densities still at a profit. Not possible with intensively run Vietnamese operations to change model (size and density) other than go for that lowest price cost commodity traded shrimp production model.